Apocalypse Never: Why Environmental Alarmism Hurts us All

Joel had recommended this book for Bonnie Lea Book Club so he led our discussion. He began by citing author Michael Schellenberger’s substantial environmental bona fides including being named TIME Magazine’s Environmentalist of the Year along with his extensive world travel in non-developed places that need energy. As the sub-title indicates, the theme is that extremism is not helping humankind solve today’s environmental challenges. There’s so much more to this important story, and the book exposes false narratives while offering perspectives based on facts and historical realities with a consistent focus on broad environmental health.

Doug is our resident energy consultant and offered his own often contrary perspective, focused on two areas in particular: “Leapfrogging” energy solutions for the undeveloped world, and the economic analyses including the impact of the speed of efficiency gains in solar and the cost of decommissioning nuclear.

Leapfrogging refers to bringing new technology directly to developing areas, rather than being content with incremental improvements, such as wood to centrally generated electricity for heating and cooking. Supporting the concept of incremental improvements, Schellenberger describes the importance of energy density and carbon release from various power generation. In poor communities, wood is the fuel of choice because it is usually free. Just cut down the wood you need, including wood for charcoal cooking. Electricity, powered by hydro, natural gas, or even coal-fired plants, is far more energy efficient, and ultimately saves the forests that are so important for animal habitat and forested carbon sinks. Another of Schellenberger’s goals is food production efficiency with habitation concentration – let the rural kids move to the cities – for similar reasons of protecting habitat.

Another of Doug’s objections to the incremental approach is required centralized power generation and distribution, a reversal of the developed nations’ trend toward de-centralization, locally distributed power. An example of leapfrogging from the communications industry is the cell phone: it’s always been too expensive to run land lines to remote places. Doug held that decentralized power can work the same way, through leapfrogging, while Schellenberger argues that any incremental increase can reduce carbon emissions and provide more economic opportunity for more people with larger projects that reach more people. Habitat destruction will moderate.

The idea that affluent societies have both the means and the motivation to protect wild or clean spaces was not lost on Rick and Geoff, who both work with a local environmental group that has had a powerful effect on our local water quality. Environmental stewardship takes local interest and money.

The book discusses externalities both in the context of power generation – carbon mostly – and waste. Waste is handled in functioning societies with money to pay for waste management. Dysfunctional societies do not pay for waste management, for lack of funds or lack of interest, reflected in the fact that 40% of ocean waste comes from rivers out of south Asia, and 25% from China alone. These examples illustrate false solutions common in today’s pop culture: e.g. the sea turtle with the straw in its nose. A video of a sea turtle having a straw extracted from its nose went viral on YouTube, prompting calls for banishing straws across the country. While banishing plastic straws from around the U.S. satisfied many people, it has had no impact on ocean waste or sea turtles. Using imitation tortoise shell glasses frames has a far higher impact on sea turtles: “artificial is better than natural” is more a far effective strategy toward protecting declining flora and fauna.

He used the plight of whales to show how resource depletion is often mitigated as costs rise and alternatives emerge: whale oil was valued for its clean burn in lamps in the 1800’s, but replaced by palm oil out of the Congo. In the 20th century, twice as many whales were harvested as the previous century as baleen was valued for its plasticity. Then came… plastics. Whaling had been curtailed enough to reverse its decline two decades before Greenpeace famously led the worldwide whaling ban efforts.

Someone remarked that Schellenberger poked a pin at a lot of balloons, one of the reasons challenges to his book rank higher in google than the book itself (which for our book club is a reason to read it!). He documents clearly and questions the motivations of many environmental groups including the Sierra Club and the Natural Resource Defense Council on the money behind certain campaigns, first nuclear, and now natural gas. Because nuclear generates no carbon and is superior by orders of magnitude for construction cost to output value, traditional carbon interests engaged environmental groups (such as the two mentioned) to lead a national shutdown of the nuclear industry. In California, shutting down Diablo Canyon nuclear plant before its designed life span cost $3.2 billion, 70% of which was borne by ratepayers. Its replacement Evanpah Solar array (below) occupies a footprint 450X that of Diablo Canyon and prompted the destruction of desert tortoise and other desert fauna and flora. An investigation into collusion between regulators and carbon interests was quashed by then California AG Kamala Harris, a dig at the established power structure behind the scenes.

The book further chronicles how the Brown family (2 California governors) interest in oil drove energy policy in that state; this policy has given Californians intermittent power outages, fires from transmission lines, smog: in short, unreliable, dirty, expensive electricity. The chapter “All About the Green” validates the old expression, “follow the money”. As Bill pointed out, there is more “greed” than “green” behind many facets of the environmental movement. In closing that chapter, Shellenberger savaged recent presidential aspirant Tom Steyer, with this sentence: “the fossil fuel billionaire who has killed more clean energy, and increased emissions, more than any other in recent history.” No wonder Schellenberger has detractors among carbon financed “Green” activists.

Known externalities are conveniently suppressed from renewable energy discussions, and are exposed in this book. Windfarms kill birds and bats, by the millions, and particularly large birds which don’t reproduce quickly. Consider the resources dedicated to saving the California Condor, while California sets up thousands of windmills that… kill condors! Siting also places many of these farms on migratory paths because urban and suburban voters don’t want windmills in their backyards. Even though few people really love insects, it’s estimated that German and English windmills each kill over a trillion insects – that’s over a million million – annually, enough to disrupt food chains and change environments. The windfarm industry doesn’t like to talk about their externalities, but the book argues persuasively they should be part of an honest total analysis. (And Doug pointed out its mechanical limitations).

The writing was good in connecting local incentives and national approaches to global consequences, though many thought the facts cited were more than necessary to tell the story. Sidebar, for excellent insight into Schellenberger’s core themes, watch him on YouTube, (Here’s one describing the evolution of his own support of nuclear power https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ciStnd9Y2ak )

Before closing, we have to acknowledge Doug’s substantial insight into energy trends: Watch Hydrogen Fuel cells, count on continued decentralization on the distribution side, always consider the total costs (environmental footprint, disposal / decommissioning), and innovation trends which bend curves.

Michael Schellenberger comes across as an environmentalist on a mission: to broaden the conversation on environmental solutions, while challenging some of today’s popular narratives. His interests seem pure, and his conclusions will challenge any who believe all environmental activism is as pure. It will be uncomfortable for some, as he pokes many bears, especially the “green” carbon ones. Overall, we all liked this book and learned a lot about energy, and plenty more about the Green behind the Green.